CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z SUN 23/11 - 06Z MON 24/11 2003
ISSUED: 23/11 08:05Z
FORECASTER: VAN DER VELDE

General thunderstorms are forecast across the western Mediterranean Sea, Balearic Isles

General thunderstorms are forecast across the Atlantic Ocean west of Norway

General thunderstorms are forecast across the Mediterranean Sea around Greece

SYNOPSIS

Elongated shallow low pressure area at the eastern flank of an inverse omega-shaped upper low extends from Southern Scandinavia through the Iberian Peninsula and migrates slowly eastward.
The trough is filled with cold saturated air with clouds with an old front remaining stationary from western France into the Benelux, northern Germany and Poland, sustained by confluent winds and a slight wetbulb potential temperature gradient.

Unstable airmass is present below the upper trough, especially around the apex near the Iberian Peninsula, where slightly baroclinic circumstances and vorticity advection sustain rising motion and hence destabilization. The GFS model expresses this as a strenghtening line of convergence moving through the western Mediterranean Sea between 12Z-06Z. Organized severe storms are not anticipated as shear values are generally below or around marginal. Small hail and nonsevere gusts are possible with this convection.

Other areas of (light) thundery include the Norwegian west coast and the Mediterranean Sea west of Greece. A comma cloud with convection sinks into Marocco (outside forecast area).

DISCUSSION

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